Former Lagos Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu will win the 2023 presidential election in Nigeria. That is according to Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research.

The agency, which is an arm of the international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, wrote this in a report.

The victory of Tinubu, who’s the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress in next year’s general election in Nigeria, will spur social instability and protests across the country because of his party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, the report says.

“We maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the APC,” the report reads.

“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.”

The report adds that “Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between northern and southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims.

“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.”

The agency also said the presidential flag-bearer of the Labour Party – Peter Obi – would not win the election, contrary to what some polls are showing.

Citing a 2020 World Bank report, Fitch said only 36 per cent of Nigerians use the Internet, where Obi is massively popular.

“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents, Bola Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered online,” the report reads.

“Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.”


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